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The Price of Happiness: Azerbaijan's Geopolitical Complexities and the Quest for Stability

On 21 April, 2023     By Tural Abdullayev

One interesting detail to expand upon is Azerbaijan's relationship with Iran. While Azerbaijan and Iran share a border and have historical ties, their relationship has been strained in recent years due to several factors. One of the main issues is Azerbaijan's close ties with Israel, which has caused tensions with Iran, a vocal critic of Israel. Azerbaijan has been purchasing weapons from Israel and has also allowed Israel to use its airbases for potential military operations, which has caused concern in Iran.

Another aspect of Azerbaijan's relationship with Iran is the issue of the large Azerbaijani minority in Iran, estimated to be around 25 million people. Azerbaijan has expressed support for the rights of this minority, which has created tensions with Iran, which has a history of suppressing ethnic minority rights. Azerbaijan has criticized Iran for its treatment of ethnic Azerbaijanis and has called for greater cultural and linguistic rights for them. This has further strained the relationship between Azerbaijan and Iran, as Iran sees it as interference in its internal affairs.

Azerbaijan has also been building closer ties with Central Asian countries, such as Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan, and Turkmenistan. These countries share cultural and historical similarities with Azerbaijan and have expressed interest in strengthening economic and political cooperation. Azerbaijan sees these countries as potential allies and trading partners, especially as it seeks to diversify its economy beyond oil dependence. Strengthening relations with Central Asian countries could provide Azerbaijan with new markets for its goods and services, as well as access to new investment opportunities.

Another interesting detail to consider is the impact of the upcoming elections in Turkey on Azerbaijan. Azerbaijan has traditionally had close ties with Turkey, considering it a "brother country" due to their shared cultural and ethnic roots. However, with the potential change in leadership in Turkey, there are uncertainties about the future of Azerbaijan's relations with its longtime ally. If there is a shift in Turkey's foreign policy or leadership, it could have implications for Azerbaijan's geopolitical position and its ability to rely on Turkey for support.

In recent years, Azerbaijan has also sought support from Western countries, such as the United States and Europe, to counterbalance potential threats from its neighbors. Azerbaijan has been actively engaging in diplomatic efforts to strengthen its relationships with Western countries, including participating in international forums and seeking foreign investment. However, this approach may come with increased obligations, such as borrowing money, raising taxes, and other fees, which could impact the country's stability and economy in the long run. Balancing the need for support from Western countries with potential economic obligations will be a delicate task for Azerbaijan's leadership.

The impact of oil on Azerbaijan's economy and stability is another interesting detail to consider. While Azerbaijan has significant oil reserves and has been a major oil producer in the region, ordinary citizens have not seen significant benefits from it. There are concerns about corruption and mismanagement of oil revenues, and many Azerbaijanis feel that the wealth from oil has not been evenly distributed. Additionally, the country's dependence on oil has made its economy vulnerable to fluctuations in global oil prices, which could impact its stability in the long run. Managing the challenges and opportunities of the oil industry will be a key factor in Azerbaijan's future economic prospects and stability.

In conclusion, the geopolitical situation in Azerbaijan is complex and challenging, with various factors at play. Managing relationships with neighboring countries, mitigating risks, diversifying the economy, and balancing economic obligations will be important considerations for Azerbaijan's leadership to maintain stability and address the challenges ahead. The country's relationships with Iran, Central Asian countries, and Turkey, as well as its efforts to seek support from Western countries, and its dependence on oil, are all interesting details to further explore in understanding Azerbaijan's current situation.

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